← Gonza Grand Archive PTM Store Championship
Fire SuzakuTier 1
at Gonza Grand Archive PTM Store Championship
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 8.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.9% | +7.8 |
| Fire Exia | 8.3% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 30.1% | -19.1 |
| Fire Oblation | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 8.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.1% | +16.2 |
| Water Diana | 8.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.8% | +12.4 |
| Water Fractal | 8.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.1% | +16.2 |
| Water Genbu | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Slimes | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 8.3% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 41.3% | -8.3 |
Decklists · 2 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 31 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 31 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vermilion Decree | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Coiled Fatestone | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fatestone of Unrelenting | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Orb of Hubris | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Embercrypt Burn | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Smoke Out | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Liminal Guide | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Arthur, Young Heir | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Beastbond Boots | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Three of Hearts | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fluffy Shopkeep | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Demolition | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Smoke Bombs | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Embersong | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Peppered Chef | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Broken Promises | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spark Alight | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Infernal Vessel | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Restorative Flame | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blazing Throw | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Shatter the Brittle | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Clumsy Apprentice | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fiery Interference | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Red Hare, Unrivaled Stallion | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Dire Requiem | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |